SEOUL, South Korea (AP) 鈥� North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to strengthen state control over agriculture and take a spate of other steps to increase grain production, state media reported Thursday. But experts say it won鈥檛 effectively .
Kim鈥檚 measures unveiled during a recent four-day meeting were largely a repeat of his past policies. Prospects for quickly resolving its food insecurity are dim, as North Korea restricts the operation of markets and devotes much of its scarce resources to its nuclear program.
While experts believe the food situation is the worst it has been under Kim鈥檚 11-year rule, they still say they see no signs of imminent famine or mass deaths.
During the that ended Wednesday, Kim said his government sees agricultural development as a matter of 鈥渟trategic鈥� importance and that farming goals should be settled without fail, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
鈥淚n order to attain the gigantic long-term objective of rural development, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the party guidance over the agricultural sector and improve the rural party work,鈥� Kim was quoted as saying.
Kim also ordered officials to overcome unspecified 鈥渓opsidedness in the guidance on farming鈥� and concentrate on increasing farm yields. He said provincial, city and county authorities must boost their guidance on agriculture.
KCNA didn鈥檛 elaborate how Kim would reinforce his government鈥檚 guidance on farming. But experts say Kim's instructions were a reaffirmation of his push to restore elements of a socialist-style planned economy 鈥� under which a central authority controls the market rather than participants 鈥� on grain supply. They say that's one of the factors behind North Korea鈥檚 worsened food situation.
鈥淚n our views, they鈥檙e going backward and returning to the past,鈥� said Kwon Tae-jin, a senior economist at the private GS&J Institute in South Korea. 鈥淭o resolve the food problem, they should let markets play a greater role. But they鈥檙e rather returning to a planned economy.鈥�
South Korea鈥檚 Unification Ministry said later Thursday that North Korea is expected to use local organizations in rural towns to maintain their control of the people, mobilize them as labor forces and implement previous policies. It expressed skepticism about whether Kim鈥檚 push to tighten guidance over agricultural activities would lead to meaningful improvements unless it's backed by the supply of fertilizer and other key agricultural materials.
North Korea鈥檚 state rationing system remains largely broken since a crippling famine killed an estimated hundreds of thousands of people in the mid-1990s. The country had since tolerated some levels of open market activities, a move that experts say has helped the North achieve a slow, modest economic growth but could eventually pose a threat to its authoritarian leadership by the Kim family.
North Korea鈥檚 chronic economic difficulties and food insecurity have deepened with toughened United Nations sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic that decimated its external trade, and the North鈥檚 own mismanagement.
Further aggravating its food shortage was authorities鈥� unsuccessful attempts to supply grain via state-run facilities while restricting private dealings at markets. Other factors attributed to the food shortage include dwindling personal incomes and sharply decreased unofficial grain purchases from China due to the pandemic curbs, Kwon said.
鈥淢arket participants are still very cautiously acting, so the volume of grain at markets hasn鈥檛 increased much,鈥� Kwon said. 鈥淚f authorities view markets negatively, they can鈥檛 be properly recovered.鈥�
Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University鈥檚 Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said the latest North Korean meeting was meant to review the progress in existing long-term strategies to improve national food production, remind officials of related goals and discuss ways to implement them.
But he said there was still no description of meaningfully new strategies or direction.
The Unification Ministry said North Korean state media鈥檚 lack of detailed assessments about the long-term strategies' accomplishments indicates that progress has been slow.
North Korea鈥檚 2022 grain production was estimated at 4.5 million tons, a 3.8% drop from a year earlier, according to South Korean assessments. In the previous decade, its annual production was an estimated 4.4 million to 4.8 million tons. South Korea鈥檚 spy agency has said North Korea needs 5.5 million tons of grain to feed its 25 million people each year.
The plenary meeting of the ruling party's Central Committee heavily concentrated on agriculture. That could be an acknowledgement the food situation is serious, but some experts say the country also likely aims to burnish Kim鈥檚 image as a leader caring for his people and boost domestic support of his push to expand his nuclear arsenal.
During the meeting, Kim also called for officials to build new irrigation systems, supply more efficient farming machines and convert more tideland into farmland. He urged authorities to provide all available assistance to rural farming communities and the public to rally behind his leadership to attain agricultural goals.
鈥淚t is difficult to be optimistic about the food supply as long as Pyongyang insists on implementing North Korean-style socialism and isolating the country from international trade and assistance while developing nuclear missiles,鈥� Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.
While North Korea is about 1 million tons of grain short of sufficient annual levels, Lim said that such degrees of shortages have not resulted in mass famines in the past. Kwon said food is still available at markets, though at expensive prices.
鈥淚t鈥檚 like very poor people are starving but the government won鈥檛 let them die of hunger. Things could continue like that,鈥� Kwon said.
Hyung-jin Kim And Kim Tong-hyung, The Associated Press
