NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� There were, admittedly, , so you might have missed it: The old Oscar rules have gone out the window.
A film, streamed by Apple TV+, won Hollywood鈥檚 top award without a penny of box office. But this year 鈥� plot twist! 鈥� there isn鈥檛 one streaming title in the hunt for the major prizes. When nominations are announced Tuesday, popcorn will be on the menu. and all look assured of best-picture nods.
But after a seesawing movie year where every pronouncement about the future of theatrical movies was plausible at different times 鈥� Audiences are back! No they鈥檙e not! 鈥� the film Hollywood will crown the best of 2022 may, ultimately, be neither a streaming title nor a box-office smash.
have strongly suggested there are just three films with a realistic shot at best picture. The sci-fi indie 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once,鈥� the Irish dark comedy 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin鈥� and Steven Spielberg's fictionalized memoir 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥� were the only films nominated for the top prizes of the , the and the Directors Guild. As much as some would like to see 鈥淭op Gun: Maverick鈥� buzz the Oscar tower, striking out with the actors' guild has almost always been a death knell for best picture chances.
But it鈥檚 a until the on March 12. Here鈥檚 a rundown of what we can expect when nominations are announced Tuesday morning.
WHAT ARE THE FAVORITES?
The strongest support seems to be for and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert鈥檚 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once." Along with nods for direction, screenwriting and best picture, both films could score as many as four acting nominations Tuesday. is the frontrunner in the formidable best actress category, while her co-star, appears to be running away with best supporting actor. 鈥淏anshees鈥� star Colin Farrell is probably the stiffest competition for and in best actor, while Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan may all score supporting nods.
WHAT IS 鈥楾HE FABELMANS鈥�?
That was the answer in a recent episode, a chastening moment in an otherwise much-celebrated run for Spielberg's Golden Globe-winning coming-of-age drama. 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥� has been a frontrunner since but there are some cracks in its campaign beyond unanswered gameshow clues. surprisingly missed out on a SAG nomination, but expect the academy (which has nominated Williams four times before) to remedy that. More challenging is that, unlike 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once" or 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin,鈥� 鈥淭he Fabelmans鈥� ($14.4 million domestically) underperformed at the box office. Ironically, the filmmaker who helped create the modern blockbuster will have to win despite the faint whiff of theatrical disappointment. Spielberg, though, appears headed for his ninth best director nomination, and very likely, his third win in the category.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THOSE BLOCKBUSTERS?
With $1.5 billion in ticket sales, helped bring moviegoers 鈥� especially older, more hesitant moviegoers 鈥� back to theaters after two-plus yeas of pandemic. Expected it to be rewarded with a best picture nod, as well as many nominations in the technical categories. Getting six IMAX cameras into the cockpit of a fighter jet, as cinematographer Claudio Miranda managed, is the kind of filmmaking feat that's hard to ignore. (approaching $2 billion) will be in the mix in many of the same categories, too. And for the first time, a Marvel movie is poised to land an acting nomination: Angela Bassett, for 鈥淏lack Panther: Wakanda Forever." She'll also likely win.
Some would say that the Oscars could use such box-office hits. Ratings have tended to be higher in years where widely watched films are vying for best picture. In recent years, Oscar producers have vainly tried to add prizes for 鈥渂est popular film鈥� and Twitter-voted winners, and mostly only gotten mockery for their efforts. At the same time, more modest films 鈥� 鈥淐ODA,鈥� 鈥淣omadland,鈥� 鈥淧arasite," 鈥淭he Shape of Water,鈥� 鈥淢oonlight鈥� 鈥� have usually triumphed.
WHAT ROUNDS OUT BEST PICTURE?
Ten films will be nominated for best picture, and seven of those slots feel like locks: 鈥淭he Banshees of Inisherin,鈥� 鈥淓verything Everywhere All at Once,鈥� 鈥淭he Fabelmans," 鈥淭op Gun: Maverick,鈥� 鈥淭谩r,鈥� 鈥淎vatar: The Way of Water鈥� and 鈥淓lvis.鈥� I'd expect to see Darren Aronofsky's 鈥淭he Whale" and, maybe, Sarah Polley's 鈥淲omen Talking,鈥� which scored a best ensemble nod from SAG. That would leave films like 鈥淭riangle of Sadness,鈥� 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front鈥� and 鈥淕lass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery鈥� hunting for the the last spot.
WHAT'S WITH THE 鈥楪RASSROOTS鈥� CAMPAIGN FOR ANDREA RISEBOROUGH?
With Yeoh, Blanchett, Williams, Viola Davis ("The Woman King"), Ana de Armas ("Blonde") and Danielle Deadwyler ("Till"), the best actress category is already ultra-competitive. But has pushed Andrea Riseborough forward for her performance as an alcoholic West Texas mother in the little-seen October release, 鈥淭o Leslie." Riseborough wasn't seen as in the awards mix but she did land a nomination from the Independent Spirit Awards. Instead, it's been a host of A-listers including Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet, Charlize Theron and Jennifer Aniston whose promotion of Riseborough suddenly put her on the Oscar map.
WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FOR?
Jamie Lee Curtis ("Everything Everywhere All at Once") could land her first Oscar nomination. So could Adam Sandler ("Hustle"), who was nominated by SAG for his Netflix basketball drama. The favored international film may not be the Indian sensation 鈥淩RR鈥� (which wasn't selected by India , including best song). The German entry 鈥淎ll Quiet on the Western Front,鈥� coming off and aggressively pushed by Netflix, may be the foreign film that racks up multiple nominations Tuesday.
WHO WON'T BE BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED?
The academy's policy that international films are submitted by the governments of their origin countries has had a chilling effect on filmmakers working inside oppressive regimes. will be absent only because Iran, which imprisoned Panahi earlier this year, predictably chose not to submit it. my may find some well-deserved academy love for Paul Mescal but could surely contend in many categories, especially if they gave Oscars for 鈥淏est Needle Drop." I might have also voted for Tilda Swinton in 鈥淭he Eternal Daughter,鈥� Keke Palmer for 鈥淣ope,鈥� Steven Soderbergh's 鈥淜imi鈥� for best film and 鈥淲eird: The Al Yankovic Story鈥� for best screenplay. Plus, how are we not throwing awards at Daniel Craig for one of the year's funniest performances in 鈥淕lass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"? He deserves it, if for nothing else, for the swimwear.
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Follow AP Film Writer Jake Coyle on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP
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For more coverage of Hollywood鈥檚 awards season, visit https://apnews.com/hub/awards-season
Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
