MOGI GUACU, Brazil (AP) 鈥� Orange juice prices have , falling when bumper harvests create an oversupply of oranges and rising when frost or knocks out fruit trees.
But the record-high prices the world is seeing for OJ right now may be on the table for a while, since and ravaging orange groves in some top-producing countries aren鈥檛 easily resolved problems.
This year鈥檚 harvest , the world鈥檚 largest exporter of orange juice, is likely to be the worst in 36 years due to flooding and drought, according to a forecast by Fundecitrus, a citrus growers鈥� organization in Sao Paulo state.
鈥淭he concern isn't just that the price of juice is going up. The concern is not having the juice,鈥� Oscar Simonetti, an orange farmer in Mogi Guacu, Brazil, said.
In the U.S., orange production fell 62% in the 2022-2023 season after Hurricane Ian further battered a crop that was struggling due to . Spain鈥檚 orange production last year.
Scarce supplies have sent prices soaring. In the U.S., a 12-ounce can of frozen orange juice concentrate cost an average of $4.27 in April, 42% more than during the same month a year earlier, according to government figures.
In the United Kingdom, where the British Fruit Juice Association says supplies are at 50-year lows, the price of fresh orange juice rose 25% over the past year, according to consumer research company Nielsen.
Those price increases are turning off . Orange juice consumption has fallen 15% to 25% in major global markets 鈥� including the U.S. and the European Union 鈥� over the last year, according to Rabobank, a Dutch bank that focuses on food and agriculture.
Jonna Parker, a principal for fresh food client insights at market research company Circana, said consumers are increasingly getting their morning , smoothies and other beverages besides orange juice.
鈥淭he price gets high and people consider other alternatives,鈥� she said.
Global orange juice consumption was already declining before the current price hikes due to competition from other drinks and public concern about the in fruit juices. If that trend continues, it should help balance supply with demand and keep prices from rising much further, Rabobank said. But it expects limited supplies will keep prices elevated for some time.
In some markets, orange juice is disappearing from shelves altogether.
Late last year, McDonald鈥檚 in Australia removed orange juice from its menu in favor of an 鈥渙range fruit drink鈥� that contains 35% orange juice. The company cited short supplies.
Tokyo-based Morinaga Milk Industry Co. expects to stop shipping its Sunkist brand orange juice 鈥� which uses juice from Brazil 鈥� by the end of June because of low juice supplies from Brazil, a company spokeswoman said. In April 2023, Megmilk Snow Brand Co., based in the northern Japanese city of Sapporo, stopped shipments of 1-liter (about a quart) and 450-milliliter (15.2-ounce) packs of orange juice, which it sells under an agreement with Dole. Sales haven鈥檛 yet resumed.
Some companies are considering using alternatives to oranges in their products. Coldpress, a British juice company, introduced a mandarin juice product in February, citing the high price of regular juicing oranges.
But others are tight-lipped about their plans. Several major orange juice makers 鈥� including Dole, , Florida鈥檚 Natural, Uncle Matt鈥檚 and Coca-Cola, which makes the Simply and Minute Maid brands 鈥� declined to comment or failed to respond to inquires from The Associated Press.
The roots of the current supply troubles stretch back decades. In 2005, an invasive bug called the Asian citrus psyllid arrived in Florida, injecting bacteria from its saliva into the state鈥檚 orange trees. The bacteria slowly kills the tree by destroying its root systems. There鈥檚 no known cure once .
The impact has been devastating. In 2004, before the disease 鈥� 鈥� hit Florida, the state produced 200 million boxes of oranges. This year, it will produce less than 20 million.
Michael Rogers, a professor of entomology and the director of the University of Florida鈥檚 Citrus Research and Education Center, said no type of orange tree is totally resistant to greening, but scientists have been trying to breed trees that are more tolerant of it.
Citrus greening arrived in Brazil around the same time as Florida, but it has progressed more slowly there because Brazil has much larger orange groves. Bugs spread the disease by flying from tree to tree, Rogers said.
Still, the disease is spreading. Fundecitrus estimates that 38% of Brazil鈥檚 orange trees had citrus greening in 2023. Simonetti, the orange farmer, estimates that 20% of his production is affected by greening. Oranges on affected trees don't ripen properly and fall off early, affecting the quality of their juice, he said.
to other locations isn鈥檛 necessarily an option. California grows oranges, for example, and the citrus psyllid doesn鈥檛 fare as well in the state鈥檚 climate. But California also doesn鈥檛 get the rainfall needed for juicing oranges; its oranges are usually sold for eating, Rogers said.
Another issue impacting orange harvests is extreme weather, which is becoming more common as the world warms due to climate change.
Last year, nine heat waves swept across Brazil, resulting in lower output and poorer fruit quality. This year, the impacts of El Ni帽o have been particularly dramatic, with a historic drought in the Amazon and in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.
鈥淭he temperatures are high during the day. At night the temperature drops. The plant can't stand this temperature difference,鈥� Simonetti said.
Brazil鈥檚 2024-2025 harvest is expected to yield 232 million boxes of oranges, down 24% from the prior year.
鈥淲e have never seen a harvest like this,鈥� Vin铆cius Trombin, the coordinator of Fundecitrus鈥� crop estimates survey, said.
To make up for the anticipated smaller yield, some producers are considering blending oranges with tangerines to make juice, Trombin said. But he鈥檚 skeptical.
鈥淭he consumer wants an orange juice made up 100% out of oranges,鈥� he said.
Parker, of Circana, isn鈥檛 so sure. She thinks blends with other fruits might help hold down costs and revive consumer interest in orange juice.
鈥淭he idea of multiple flavors is very popular and is a way to stand out,鈥� she said. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to keep people engaged. Once you lose that interest, it鈥檚 really hard to get people back.鈥�
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Durbin reported from Detroit. AP Writers Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo and Eleonore Hughes in Rio de Janeiro contributed.
Dee-ann Durbin And Tatiana Pollastri, The Associated Press
